Friday, March 29, 2024

Centers of Strength and Trends in US - China Relations

2008 can be characterized by three events, the 5-day war between Russia and Georgia and Russia’s recognition of South Osetia and Abkhazia, China’s taking stock of 30 years of reform and opening up, the collapse of Wall Street and the resultant biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression. These events send the following message that the Russian Federation has staged a comeback and the US and EU can no longer ignore Russia in solving world problems, and China has risen to the status of superpower, extending its activities and influence, and the US, albeit a superpower, is now in decline.

In the next 10-15 years, India, China and Brazil will not be superpowers. The Russian Federation will be one of the three centres of strength though it continues to have difficulties. It will be an important factor in the US-China relations as the US and China try to maintain relations with the Russian Federation. In these contexts, US-China relations will be (1) that of confrontation, (2) G2 cooperation, (3) that of cooperation and confrontation. The author believes that the last scenario is more likely to unfold.

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